At a time when global trade is bleeding post the Hormuz blockades, the USA’s recent defense pact with Indonesia is not merely a coincidence but a clear sign that the US-Iran war may be expanding into the Indian Ocean too, taking a new shape of this conflict in the region. Given that the geopolitical turmoil is exponentially growing across the globe, it will not be wrong to assume that the recent developments in the bilateral relationship between the US and Indonesia are primarily aimed at countering China’s influence across the region.
In his Heartland Theory, Sir Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, elaborated on how those who control the land, particularly the Eurasian landmass, control the world. In contrast to Mackinder’s proposed theory, “The Heartland Theory,” in 1904, Alfred T. Mahan, in his book “The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660-1783,” beautifully explained how those who control the ocean control the world. He further elaborated that global power and national prosperity of a country highly depend on controlling sea lanes, which actually allow a country to protect its own trade by simultaneously cutting off rivals’ trade routes.
The recent militarization of the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca, possibly going to be the next one, reminds us of the context that although Alfred T. Mahan’s theory is much older than Mackinder’s, the relevance of Mahan’s sea power theory remains very much prominent in the contemporary scenario, as countries across the world are engaged in a race to control sea lanes, gradually leading to the weaponization of maritime chokepoints worldwide.
As memoranda of Agreement signed between the US and Singapore in 1990, 2005, and 2015 already provide the US Navy with enough access to Singaporean facilities in the name of regional stability, maritime security, and counterterrorism, the recently signed defense agreement between the US and Indonesia has surprised geopolitical experts worldwide. This defense pact surprisingly comes at a time when the US and China are likely fighting a proxy war in Iran, where China-backed Iran, given the circumstances, seems to be dominating this war. Although it is somehow undigestible to say that Iran is dominating this war, all of this is happening because Iran is reportedly receiving indirect support from China. In fact, the US has also allegedly said that China might be secretly supplying weapons to Iran in this war.
Given that China, along with other American adversaries, has openly given its diplomatic support to Iran in this war, geopolitical experts across the world argue that the US Navy’s counterblockade in the Strait of Hormuz is not just to hurt Iran but also to counter China’s trade capability with Iran passing through this strait, as Iran had announced to give passage through this strait to those countries transacting in Petroyuan only.
For the US, the future course of action in the Iranian War is at a crossroads, with no exit or entry, and that is the strategic dilemma the US is facing today. While the early exit of the US from this war will challenge the global military hegemonic image of the US, the Chinese and Russian support to Iran in this war is costing more than $1 billion to the US, with no certainty for the US winning this war in any case. As the US’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz seems to be slipping away, the US Navy is looking for an alternative, which is the Strait of Malacca, through which more than 60% of China’s total maritime trade passes. The US may be of the opinion that it will be able to put pressure on China to stop supplying weapons to Iran. Therefore, the USA’s defense agreement with Indonesia is possibly a military demonstration that the US Navy might block the Strait of Malacca when and if the need arises, significantly hampering China’s trade through the strait.
As the Strait of Malacca is located near many countries of Southeast Asia, a major portion of this strait is primarily controlled by Singapore and Indonesia. Furthermore, geographically, Indonesia controls the major part of the Strait of Malacca. It is not technically possible to have influence over this strait without having a good relationship with these two countries. As Singapore already had a good bilateral relationship with the US, the recently signed strategic relationship between the US and Indonesia is likely to play a very significant role in the unfolding geopolitics in the Indian Ocean post the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Given the above geopolitical circumstances, it would not be wrong to infer that the Strait of Malacca may have become a non-military weapon against China for the US. Its recently signed defense pact with Indonesia is nothing but a strategic card against China, which has recently defied the US’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
In this context, the US, through this defense pact, will not only demonstrate its strategic presence in the region but also gain a strategic edge over China, as more than 60% of China’s total maritime trade (over 80% oil imports) solely passes through this strait. It will not be wrong to draw an inference from this ‘defense pact’ that, while China, with the help of Iran, is playing smart to strategically push for trading in Petroyuan, the US, being unsuccessful in containing China in the Strait of Hormuz, is now attempting to gauge the capability of China in the Strait of Malacca.
As the US and Indonesia did not have such a major defense cooperation agreement in the past, the recently signed defense pact reminds us of a quote once said by the former British Prime Minister, Henry John Temple: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no eternal enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual.”
Sanjay Turi and Alveera Choudhry
Alveera Choudhry, Doctoral candidate at SNCWS, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi
Sanjay Turi, Doctoral candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies (CWAS), School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University.